Financial forecasting for small businesses

Sean Rustrick • 4 December 2023

Financial forecasting for small businesses: Why it's important and how to do it

Financial forecasting is all about being forward thinking. When you are running a small business you are so busy thinking about the next sale you tend to not think about the future and staying ahead of the competition. When you start thinking about forecasting you can use it as a guide for positive decision making and this will help your business grow.


What actually is financial forecasting?

 

Forecasting is needed for any size business. It is a planning process that revolves around uncertainties about the future. You use past and present numbers to identify trends and estimates about future outcomes to create projections about your business’s financial future (such as future sales and expenses). This allows you to look at things such as staffing and cash requirements for example, how much will my VAT bill be if sales increase by that amount?


How to do it


Top-down forecasting - you start with a picture of the future (dream big!) and zoom into the specifics of how you can achieve this. You use this for future performance (working with numbers and needs to focus on sales). This is the most useful type of forecasting for small businesses because you identify goals for the company and then identify what sales you want.


Bottom-up forecasting - you look at specific customers/products and their relation to estimated sales needed.

Hybrid - you use both of the above forecasting techniques in combination.

 

 

Why is forecasting important?

 

- Helps determine long-term vision - where do you want to be in in 1 year,3 years and 5 years? This could be a mission statement or the overall vision for the business. Put simply - it helps you figure out where you want both yourself and the business to be in 5-10 years’ time.

- Shows a pathway for achieving goals - the forecast helps create a roadmap for establishing short and long-term attainable goals and a pathway to reach those goals based on historical business data and market trends.


- Provides investors in the business (you, the bank, a family member, anyone) with information - people investing in the business (including you and your spouse or partner) will want to know financial health and projections for reaching profitability. This requires predictions based on solid data (market trends, past performance). If you are investing your own money and time you will want to minimise risk and a forecast will show where the business is going.


- It identifies risks and opportunities -  you always want to limit risk and increase opportunity to succeed in business. Forecasting flags up possible unforeseen risks (not having enough staff or hours in the day!) and identifies new opportunities because it allows you to understand your current customer base and attract new business. 


- You can plan and predict cash flow - you can look at multiple years of numbers and see at what time of year there is a cash flow problem (making increased profit will lead to higher tax bills….it’s life!) This allows you to investigate, understand the issue and find ways to limit future impacts.


At Rustrick Accountants, we help lots of clients with financial forecasting, cash flows and business plans.

If you want to pop along and, at no cost, have a chat to see what help we can give you to get your forecasting going, then contact us. Financial forecasting can help you grow your business from an acorn to an oak tree.


www.rustrick.co.uk  01622738165


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